Why we can not predict or forecast earthquakes?
Geographical changes and continental variations are based on a number of reasons. These changes are related to the natural phenomenon. The reason behind it is the internal changes in the earth crust. As the geologists say, Earth’s crust is not stable or permanent. The crust consists of solid rocks, in sections, which are called plates.
These plates are moving. They are either moving towards each other or away from each other, they are likely to collide. This collision of plates causes cracking. When such faults are developed in the crust, they cause the crust to shake. This shaking is called an earthquake.
Scientists have tried lots of different ways of predicting earthquakes, but none have been successful. They have a pretty good idea of where an earthquake is most likely to hit, but they still can’t tell exactly when it will happen.
The strength of an earthquake is measured with an instrument called a seismograph. The strength is measured on a scale of 1 to 10. This is known as the Richter Scale. Scale 1 is the weakest earthquake while scale 8 is the most serious and destructive earthquake.
By following the methods of statistical hypothesis testing are also used to determine the probability that an earthquake such as is predicted would take place anyway/null hypothesis. The predictions are then calculated by testing whether they compare with actual earthquakes better as compare to the null hypothesis.
Earthquake has not yet lead to a successful prediction of from first physical principles. Therefore its prediction is considered to be an immature science. Some study focuses on empirical analysis, to identify distinctive precursors to earthquakes, as well as identify some type of geophysical trend or pattern in seismicity that might precede a large earthquake.
Furthermore, it is a part of study that the relationship between magnetic and electrical charges in rock material and earthquakes. Assumption of some scientists is that these electromagnetic fields change in a certain way just prior to an earthquake. Seismologists are studying that the gas leakage and the tilting of the ground are the warning signs of earthquakes as well.
Scientists have had further achievement predicting aftershocks, additional quakes subsequent an initial earthquake. These predictions are based on extensive research of aftershock patterns. Seismologists can make an excellent speculation of how an earthquake originating along single fault will cause further earthquakes in joined faults.
There are increased amounts of data, new theories and available powerful computer programs and scientists are using those to explore ways that earthquakes might be predicted in the upcoming days. We can surely hope that someday we will be find ourselves in a world where an earthquake can be anticipated and predicted prior to it happens.