(TROPICAL SYSTEMS)(UPDATE 04)
(ARABIAN SEA):Depression ARB 03 (02A two) has intensified into a deep depression, it is currently located 560 kilometres southeast of Socotra, Yemen and 970 kilometres south-southeast of Salalah, Oman.
- Maximum 1-minute sustained winds are about 65 km/hr ,with gusts reaching upto 75 km/hr.
- Minimum Pressure in the core is at around 1,001 hPa.
- It is currently moving northwards at 7 knots (detailed in last paragraph).
Most models agree on the intensification of this system into a tropical storm during next 24 hours and further intensification over the period of next few days, there’s a deep consensus of models on the track of ARB 03 towards south Oman/ Southeast Yemen and movement in Northwestern direction, talking about direction the MJO (MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION) currently lies over positive phase 2 with amplitude of more than 1, which favors cyclogenesis over Arabian Sea.
SSTs(sea surface temperatures) over Southwestern arabian sea currently endures in range of 29-31°C with low to moderate vertical wind shear of (5-15 knots) accompanied with increased low level relative vorticity and low level.convergence and good poleward/equatorward outflow.
ARB 03 is currently tracking Northwards along with weakening southwestern boundary of Sub-tropical ridge (STR) towards Northeast, The STR along Northeast will continue to weaken which will allow this system to move Northwards for a while after strengthening.
We Shall update again during next 10 hours regarding change in our forecast.
(FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT CONFIRMED YET).