Monsoon season of 2017 was recorded largely below normal in whole pakistan with the exception of some areas where monsoon was above normal.
After conducting deep analysis of atmospheric conditions and Earth vectors Pakweather.com predicts Normal to Slightly above normal monsoon for whole Pakistan with expectations ranging (75-110%) +/- 15% error. There are lot’s of factors, conditions and vectors that we have researched for the preparation of monsoon outlook of 2018 but we are only going to mention the basics which include OLR/MJO values, IOD, ENSO and Deep atmospheric circulation analysis.
A quick note here that ENSO and IOD conditions are expected to remain in neutral phase throughout the monsoon, various charts are predicting Positive IOD during end of 1st phase of monsoon with Chances of returning of El-nino during time of withdrawn of monsoon.
Pakweather.com has divided monsoon into 2 phases for the audience to get a better and clear picture of the forecast, 1st phase of monsoon is from June into July and 2nd phase is from August into September.
MONSOON PHASE 01 (JUNE-JULY):
Monsoon Phase 1 is expected to be very good throughout the sub-continent due to neutral IOD and ENSO conditions along with Increase in Somalian Currents and MJO waves.
Normal Rains to slightly above normal rains are expected in Sindh during 1st active phase of monsoon with expectations 85-105% throughout Sindh and 110-120% in some parts of Southeastern Sindh. Expectations during 1st phase of monsoon for lower and Coastal Sindh are at 95-110%. Deviation upto +/- 15% may occur in the forecast.
- Isolated Severe events like short duration cloud-bursts and Heavy winds are expected mainly in Southeastern Sindh.
- Atleast 2 weather systems are expected to affect Sindh during Phase 1 of monsoon.
- Monsoon onset in Sindh is expected during 25th June – 10th July period, however Chances of pre-monsoon rains/showers in Lower-Southeastern Sindh are at HIGH level especially during 2nd/3rd week of June, monsoon axis is also expected to position itself towards lower Sindh and adjoining Gujrat during the mentioned period.
- Normal Temperatures are expected in Sindh.
- Rain percentage for Karachi remains at 95-110% departure from normal, Good sea clouds cover with occasional drizzle/light showers are expected in Karachi during 1st/2nd week of june and more consistently from last week of june.
Below normal to normal rains are anticipated for whole Punjab during 1st active phase of monsoon, Monsoon may advance in Punjab earlier than Sindh, expected dates are 25th June – 05 July, Upper Punjab is expected to receive around rains with 95-115% departure from normal, Central Punjab 80-90% and Southern Punjab 70-80%. Overall 80-105% rains in during phase 1 of monsoon. Deviation upto +/- 15% may occur.
- Very heavy Thunderstorm formations are expected over eastern belt of Punjab.
- 2 strong heat waves may affect Punjab.
- Pre-monsoon rains may not occur widespreadly, only some chances for Northeastern, southwestern and Southeastern Punjab after mid of june, however things may change.
Only Eastern and Northeastern Balochistan falls under Monsoon Zone, due to high geography, monsoonal currents have great impact on the weather of this area, Pakweather.com predicts 85-95% rains in Northeastern Balochistan while 100-110% in eastern Balochistan during 1st phase of monsoon. Deviation upto +/- 10% is expected. Monsoon onset is expected during early days of July.
- Formation of very heavy thunderstorms is expected resulting in Isolated severe weather in some areas.
Due to high geography, monsoon currents greatly affect the weather of this area, Pakweather.com predicts 85-95% rains in lower kpk while 100-110% in northern kpk during 1st phase of monsoon. Monsoon onset is expected during last days of june to early days of July (25th June – 5th July).
- Isolated Severe weather is expected.
- Heavy interaction of moist winds may occur causing heavy convection over this area.
Rains with 100-105% departure from normal are expected throughout Kashmir region with departure of 120-130% in some areas during 1st phase of monsoon. Monsoon onset is expected during 20th June – 3rd July.
- Scattered to isolated severe weather events are expected occasionally in the region.
- Interaction likely to occur.
MONSOON PHASE 02 (AUGUST – SEPTEMBER):
Due to fluctuating consensus between models and unclear atmospheric and ground conditions, forecast of phase 2 of monsoon is doubtfull, phase 2 can go well above normal if IOD progresses into a positive state, a monsoon break (weak period) is also expected during last days of July until Early August, drought chances also exist.
As per close observation of conditions Pakweather.com predicts rains with 60-70% departure from normal are expected in Whole Sindh, particularly 90-100% departure from normal is expected in extreme lower-coastal (including karachi) and in some parts of southeastern Sindh. Deviation upto +/- 30% may occur.
- Atleast 2 monsoon systems are expected to affect Sindh especially Southern sindh or atleast get very close to Sindh.
- Increase in Isolated activities is expected.
- Severe weather comditions may occur in Southeastern/Coastal belt of Sindh.
- Pleasant weather is expected to continue in Karachi during 2nd phase with Good sea cloud cover and occasional drizzle/light showers.
2nd phase of monsoon is expected to be very good for Punjab, rains with 100-110% departure from normal are expected in Upper Punjab, while 80-95% in Central Punjab and 70-80% in Southern Punjab. Deviation upto +/- 30% may occur.
- Scattered severe weather events likely.
- Strong eastern + western interaction may occur.
- Very heavy rains are likely to lead towards over flowing of rivers and low-mid level flooding.
Rains with 80-90% departure from normal are expected in Northeastern Balochistan while 90-105% in Eastern Balochistan.
- Isolated severe weather events are expected.
Rains with 90-100% departure from normal are expected in Northern Kpk while 85-95% in Southern kpk. Deviation upto +/- 20% may occur.
- Isolated Severe weather events are expected.
- Flash flooding likely in the region.
- Strong eastern + western interaction may occur.
Rains with 85-105% departure from normal are expected over kashmir region during 2nd phase of Monsoon.
- Severe weather events likely.
- Over flowing of rivers,flooding is highly possible.
- Overall mostly Normal to slightly above normal monsoon is expected in all monsoon zones of Pakistan, Severe weather events and 200-300mm rain spells in upper pakistan may occur are causing over flowing of rivers leading to floods.
- Above normal monsoon is expected for Coastal Sindh, presence of stronger than usual sea clouds and heavy drizzle/light rain is expected to occur occasionally is coastal Sindh especially Karachi throughout monsoon.
- We are expecting Normal to Below-normal temperature trend to continue in most parts of Pakistan except for Central-Southern Sindh and Southern Balochistan where normal to above normal temperatures are expected.
- Despite unclear conditions, we are expecting normal to above normal rains in coastal Sindh during 2nd phase of Monsoon.
- Intense weather events are likely in Karachi this year, monsoon rains are expected to be above normal in Karachi too, We expect around 200-300mm of rain in the city during monsoon, deviation upto +/- 65mm may occur.
- Atleast 1 monsoon system is expected to form over Gujrat-Rajhistan and adjoining Arabian Sea.
- Monsoon withdrawn maybe slightly delayed this year.
MONSOON 2018 FORECAST FOR INDIA:
Normal to Slightly above normal rains are expected in India, normal monsoon onset is expected, severe weather events are expected in Central and Southwestern India during June, 2nd phase of monsoon may go normal, August may see decrease in rains while above normal rains are expected during September, delayed monsoon withdrawn is expected.