(TROPICAL SYSTEM UPDATE 05)(ARABIAN SEA)(MIDDLE EAST WEATHER FORECAST):
Cyclonic storm Mekunu has quickly intensified further into the state of Severe cyclonic storm (Category 1 cyclone), electronic imaginery shows a properly organised circulation with convective banding wrapping around the entire circulation now.
- Maximum winds are about 109km/hr with gusts estimated upto 118km/hr.
- Minimum central pressure is estimated to be at around 990 hPa and it is currently moving in North-northwestern direction at 13km/hr.
Mekunu will continue to steer north-northwestwards along with the southwestern weakening edge of the Sub tropical ridge located to the northeast. After next 24/30 hours mekunu will move more towards east to additional STR over northwest.
Most Global models suggest intensification of Very Severe cyclonic storm into a Extremely Severe cyclonic storm during next 36 hours (category 3/4 cyclone), There is also a consensus among models about northwestward movement of the system towards South Oman/Yemen. Considering the environmental conditions MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is expected to remain in phase 2 with more than 1 amplitude during next 5 days, Very warm SSTs along with Good tropical heat potential, increased poleward and equatorward outflow with Good Upper level divergence and lower level convergence and Low to mod vertical wind shear of 5-15 Knots and good moisture incursion towards the core, hence Environmental conditions favors Menuku’s progression over next few days.
- We expect Mekunu to progress further towards Northwest and max intensify into a Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm/Cat 3 or 4 cyclone, it is expected to make landfall near Salalah Oman during early morning hours of 26th May.
- Rainfall shall begin in southwestern Oman and Northeastern Yemen from late 24th may or early 25th May.
- Around 200mm+ of rain is expected in Southwestern Oman including port city Salalah and Northeastern Yemen, mekunu’s land contact will make it loose intensity rapidly, it is expected to enter Saudi Arabia on 27th May as a Depression or well-marked Low Pressure causing around 210mm+ rain then this weakening system is expected to steer towards Southwestern Yemen causing around 60mm rain over there. (+/- 30mm error in forecast).
- Cities like Salalal, Dhalkut, Mirbat, Sadah, Thumrait, Al Ghaydah, Qishn and small villages/towns near to these cities are expected to most affected
- Winds of about 159-181 km/hr are expected in Salalah while Above 135km/hr in Southwestern Oman and Northeastern Yemen.
- Sea swell is expected to remain very high with tides upto 20 feets.
●This is a mature forecast but not a Final forecast so Change in expectations is highly anticipated.