(TROPICALSYSTEMS UPDATE_02)(ARABIAN SEA):
An area of disturbed weather INVEST 92A is located over Southeast of Oman, precisely over axis of ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) with the minimum pressure of 1007 mb and maximum winds of 37kmh.
Satellite imagery reveals Flaring and deep convection with consolidating organized circulation and formation of inter-bands, And developing primary circulation with radially inward at low level and rotating cyclonically with conserving angular momentum.
System is currently placed over very Warm SST’s (Sea Surface Temperature enduring in broad range of 29-31°C, accomapnied with good moisture inflow and Low level vertical wind shear of 5-15 Kt that supports further development during next 2 days.
atmospheric analysis reveals Great poleward and equatorward outflow towards west.
Under extremely favorable conditions we are expecting this circulation to intensify into Super Cyclonic Storm (Cat 5 cyclone), this tropical cyclone might even become the strongest cyclone to get birth in arabian sea with winds estimated to cross 270km/h+ but only time will tell.
while it is too early to finalize it’s direction but all models aggressively agree on its path towards Oman then Possiblities of re-curvation towards Pakistan’s coast exist, so far no chances are prompt for Gujrat coast.
Stay Tuned for timely Tropical System Updates.