RECAP OF PHASE 01 OF MONSOON:

Monsoon phase 1 was welcomed with below normal rains (-21% departure from normal) in Pakistan overall however, some parts of the country including Punjab and Kpk received slightly above normal rainfall. The chart given below represents total rain departure from normal in respective regions of country.

 

MONSOON PHASE 02 FORECAST:

As per close analysis of earth vectors, Pakweather.com predicts Below Normal to near normal rains for the 2nd half of monsoon 2018. We predict rains with -15% departure from normal or 85% of average rains in the country. Deviation up to 07% may occur.

SINDH:

As per close observation of conditions Pakweather.com predicts below normal to near normal rains in Sind. Precipitation with -60% departure from normal or 40-45% of average rains are expected in Whole Sind overall, particularly -50% departure from normal is expected in extreme lower-coastal (including Karachi) while -55/-60% departure from normal in central Sind, -15% departure from Normal and in eastern and southeastern Sind and -40% departure from normal in upper Sind is expected. Deviation up to +/- 15% may occur.

SPECIAL POINTS:

  • At least 1 monsoon low pressure is expected to affect Sind before retreating action of monsoon 2018.
  • Isolated heavy events are expected in southeastern Sind.
  • Increase in drizzle/light rain showers activity from in Karachi.

PUNJAB:

Same as 1st phase of monsoon, 2nd phase of monsoon is also expected to be good for Punjab, overall 95-110% of average rains are expected in Punjab. Rains with +10% departure from normal are expected in Upper Punjab, while +15% in eastern strip of Punjab, -5/-15% in Central Punjab and Southern Punjab. Deviation up to +/- 20% may occur.

SPECIAL POINTS:

  • Scattered severe weather events likely.
  • Low to medium level flooding is expected in scattered areas.

BALUCHISTAN:

Rains with +10% departure from normal are expected in Northeastern Baluchistan while +5% in Eastern Baluchistan, rest of the areas of Baluchistan are likely to receive below normal rains.

SPECIAL POINT:

  • Isolated severe weather events are expected.

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA:

Rains with +5% departure from normal are expected in Northern Kpk while -5% to +5% in Southern kpk. Deviation up to +/- 10% may occur.

SPECIAL POINTS:

  • Isolated Severe weather events are expected.
  • Flash flooding likely in the region.
  • Strong eastern + western interaction may occur.

KASHMIR:

Rains with 85-105% departure from normal are expected over kashmir region during 2nd phase of Monsoon.

SPECIAL POINTS:

  • Severe weather events likely.
  • Over flowing of rivers, flooding is highly possible.

CONCLUSION:

  1. Late withdrawn of monsoon is expected, monsoon 2018 is expected to withdraw from Pakistan during 20-27th September.
  2. A low pressure system may affect Sind or South Punjab during last days of August or early days of September for complete retreat of monsoon, so far it is hard to forecast with accuracy for this system and it’s track but under it’s influence many areas may potentially see heavy rains.
  3.  Karachi is expected to see 50-75mm of rainfall during phase 2 of monsoon 2018 +/- up to or more than 50mm deviation from expected amounts may occur if any unseen/unexpected spell rules in.
  4. More water inflow is expected in different dams of Pakistan due to increased rainfall and glacier melt.
  5. So far probability of post monsoon spells seems low.
  6. due to possibility of development of El-NINO and Negative Indian Ocean dipole, chances of tropical system development in Arabian sea seems moderate at the moment.

 

Monsoon 2018 weather outlook for phase 2
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Mohammad Faizan

Posted by Mohammad Faizan

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