WINTER OUTLOOK 2019:

Winter 2018 was met with blown out expectations for temperature, with arrival of December completely shattering out dreams of having colder than average winter in Southern Pakistan while concreting idea of having colder than average winters in Northern Half of Pakistan. Rains were met with positive signal for most of Pakistan during winter 2018.

After conducting deep analysis of Earth Vectors, Pakweather.com predicts Normal to slightly colder than normal country-wide winter 2019 season. Precipitation during winters 2019 is expected to be mostly normal. Lower than average precipitation is expected to be observed in scattered areas of Pakistan mostly southern Pakistan.

For the convenience of user experience, we have divided winter season 2019 into two phases. Phase 01 would be from (December 01st – January 15th) while phase 02 would be from (January 15th – February 28th).

Winter Phase 01:

On countrywide scale, Phase 01 of winter is expected to go normal to slightly colder than normal with below normal to normal rains.

SIND:

Phase 01 of winter 2019 for Sind is expected to go normal to slightly colder than average with below normal rains. Deviation in Temperature is expected to be around (0 to -15%) from average. Rains are expected to be observed at (-10 to -30%) from average.

PUNJAB:

1st phase of winter is expected to be witnessed with below normal to normal rains in Punjab and colder than average temperatures. (-5 to -25%) deviation from average in temperature is expected for Punjab region. (-15 to +15%) deviation from average for precipitation is expected during 1st Phase of Winters.

BALOCHISTAN:

Normal to colder than normal temperatures are expected in Baluchistan during 1st phase of winter, some areas may see above normal temperatures. Precipitation during 1st phase is also expected to go Below Normal. (+5 to -15%) deviation from mean temperature is expected, while (0 to -20%) deviation from average precipitation is expected.

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA:

Phase 01 of winters is expected to be witnessed with below normal temperatures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with normal to slightly above normal rains. (0 to -40%) deviation from mean temperatures are expected, while (0 to +20%) deviation from average precipitation is expected.

KASHMIR AND GILGIT BALDISTAN:

Phase 01 of winters is expected to be witnessed with below normal temperatures in Kashmir and GB with mostly normal rains. Deviation in temperatures is expected to be around (0 to -30%) and deviation in precipitation is expected to be around (0 to +15%).

SPECIAL POINTS FOR WINTER PHASE 01:

  1. Plain areas of Southeastern Sind may see extremely below normal minimum temperatures.
  2. At least 01 scattered to widespread Western Disturbance is expected to affect Pakistan during 1st phase of winters that may produce some rain in few parts of Sind (more chances for Western and Northern Sindh).
  3. Heavy fog is expected in Northern Sind and plains.
  4. Normal to below normal temperature to continue in Karachi too. Chances for the city to receive proper rain during phase 01 seems low at the moment, however we shall be tracking for any unprompted WD that builds rain chances for Karachi.
  5. Good Rains are expected in extreme upper Punjab during 1st phase of winters.
  6. Dense fog at times is expected to occur in Plains of Punjab.
  7. At least 01 scattered to widespread precipitation causing WD may affect Baluchistan.
  8. Snowfall rate in 1st half is expected to go below normal in Northeastern Baluchistan.
  9. SMOG at times may presist over plains of Pakistan.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR MAJOR STATIONS:

  • KARACHI: May reach 6-7°C during peak of winters.
  • HYDERABAD: May reach 4-6°C during peak of winters.
  • LARKANA: May reach 0-2°C during peak of winters.
  • QUETTA: May reach -14 to -12°C during peak of winters. 
  • QALAT: May reach -18 to -16°C during peak of winters.
  • SKARDU: May reach -19 to -17°C during peak of winters.
  • LAHORE: May reach  0 to 2°C during peak of winters.
  • FAISALABAD: May reach -1 to 1°C during peak of winters.
  • MULTAN: May reach 0 to 2°C during peak of winters.
  • PESHAWAR: May reach -1 to 1°C during peak of winters. 
  • ISLAMABAD: May reach -4 to -2°C during peak of winters.
  • MUZZAFARABAD: May reach -4 to -2°C during peak of winters.

WINTER PHASE 02:

Phase 02 of winters would be from 15th of January till 28th February. On countrywide scale phase 02 of winters is expected to go wetter than phase 01 and normally cold with respect to the averages.

SIND:

Temperature is expected to take a sharper and hotter u-turn during February for Sind. Near normal temperatures with deviation of (-5 to +10%) from average is expected in Sind, while near normal precipitation is expected to be observed in most areas. Deviation (-15 to +5%) from average is expected in the region.

PUNJAB:

Near normal temperatures are anticipated to be observed in most of Punjab with deviation (-5 to +5%) from average may occur. Precipitation is expected to be slightly above normal than average, deviation of (-5 to +15%) may occur.

BALUCHISTAN:

Normal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected, deviation of (0 to -15%) may occur. Written value may change during end of February. Normal precipitation may be observed, deviation upto (0 to +10%) or more may occur.

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA:

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected with deviation upto (0 to -15%) from average may occur. Above normal rains upto ( +10 to +30%) are expected.

KASHMIR AND GILGIT BALDISTAN:

Near normal temperature is expected to be observed in both regions, deviation up to (+2 to +4%) may occur.

Normal to slightly below normal precipitation is expected to be observed with deviation up to (0 to +10%) may occur.

SPECIAL POINTS FOR WINTER PHASE 02:

  1. 01 or 02 WD are likely to affect Sind during 2nd phase of winters.
  2. Chances are highest for upper and Western Sind.
  3. Fog maybe observed in Plains of Sind.
  4. Normal to slightly below normal temperatures may continue however things are expected to take a hotter turn from 2nd or 3rd week of February.
  5. Mid February is usually the time when winters starts to recede from this region.
  6. WDs passing from North may spawn some early spring thundercloud development near Karachi during February. Chances would be highest during 2nd phase for Karachi to receive its proper winter rain.
  7. Good Rain spells are expected in Punjab during this phase with upper Punjab being the recipient of most shares of rains.
  8. Baluchistan may at least see 2 heavy rain spells, eventually causing some relief to prevailing drought conditions there.
  9. Mountains of Northeastern Baluchistan may see lower than usual snowfall rate during phase 2 of winters.
  10. Above normal Snowfall is expected over mountains of KPK, Kashmir and Gilgit Baldistan.

CONCLUSION:

Over all winter 2019 is expected to be one of the coldest we have received during last few years but in terms of rains it may come as a big disappointment.

Northern half of Pakistan would still be receiving good rains but southern half would be the one striving for its long awaited and due shares.

Still recovering from rain misfortune of  2018, Karachities would finally be enjoying proper winters after gap of 5 years. As usual winter rains for the city seems skeptical at the moment.

Spring Season 2019 (March till April) is expected to come as a rainy surprise for most of Pakistan. More details shall be envisaged later.

 

WINTER OUTLOOK 2019: Long Awaited Cold Winters Ahead For Pakistan?
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Mohammad Faizan

Posted by Mohammad Faizan

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