“Widespread Western Disturbance”
Hence, after the numerous weak to partly moderate Western Disturbances (WD) finally we are now going to witness the arrival of strongest WD of this Season.
The systems which affected Pakistan during November-December (2018) had focus on Upper Pakistan and somehow on few parts of Central Pakistan. As we can see in the figure 1 that ‘averagely’ the upper half of Pakistan enjoyed rainfall, Central Pakistan with about hypothetical departure of 40% from normal leaving Sindh and Southern Balochistan dry with zero readings. Moreover Gilgit Baltistan enjoyed 170% above normal snowfall in past two months thus increasing the water reserves for Pakistan.
January 2019: During the early January we were blessed with several systems, among them one led isolated passing showers in Karachi (north specifically) and another at the end of 1st decade caused drizzles. But both the activities were limited, however metropolis enjoyed good cloud cover and few drizzle/sprinkles.
Map for January showing the average rain amounts in millimeters accordingly
Back To Back Western Disturbances
PakWeather suggests the overall normal to slightly above normal January in terms of rain; normal in Southern and normal to above normal in Upper Half of Pakistan. Therefore average temperatures are expected to prevail with increment in the strengths of upcoming WD system.
Graph of ENSO (Current: +0.657’C) is showing the postponed-warming of Pacific Ocean, thus indicating late-onset of EL-NINO
Comprehensive Countrywide Forecast
The WD (1004 hPa) has started to affect region as the trough entered Balochistan from NW region by late Friday and caused isolated showers. The anti-clockwise system while moving in SE direction is further extending its troughs countrywide and is likely to affect with the pressure gradient of 1010 hPa to 1012 hPa. It is believed to be the most strongest widespread system of this season.
- Balochistan: The system would affect Balochistan between mid-Saturday and late Sunday. Moderate to Heavy rainfall is expected in northern and SE Balochistan’s districts of Kalat, Quetta, Zhob, Bela, Khuzdar, Lasbela, Awaran, Noshki, Mustang, Kila Abdullah, Kila Saifullah with Snowfall/Sleet on hilly and mountainous areas. Moderate rainfall is expected in Dera Bughti, Kohlu, Jafarabad, Nasirabad, Sibbi, Bolan, Jacobabad, Sui, Magsi and the severely drought striken Kharan district while Light to Moderate rain is also expected in Gawadar, Panjgur, Turbat, Chagai at one or two places.
- Punjab: The system would affect Punjab from early Sunday but the major affect is expected to be shown on Monday and Tuesday. Heavy to very Heavy rainfall is expected in northern Punjab including the regions of Islamabad, Attock, Jehlum, Rawalpindi, Gujrat, Sialkot, Lahore, Pasrur, Faisalabad, Pakpattan, Norwal, Kasur, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, Bhakkar and Sheikhupura with snowline dropping into the mountains of extreme northern Punjab at few place. Whereas isolated light to moderate rain is expected in other parts of Punjab at only few places including Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Vehari, Lodhran, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Layyah, Bhakkar, Toba Tek Singh and Khanewal.
- KPK/FATA: Moderate to heavy falls and snowfall at mountains isexpected in whole region of KPK including Chakwal, Swat, Dir, Buner, Swami, Mansehra, kohistan, battagaram, Abbotabad, Mardan,, Kohat, Bannu, Nowshehra, Karak, Peshawar, Charsadda and Haripur.
- Kashmir/GB: Heavy to very Heavy rainfall with very good snowfall is expected in whole region of GB and Kashmir including Astore, Diamer, Shigar, Skardu, Kharmang, Ghanche, Hunza, Ghizer, Muzaffrabad, Srinagar, Ladakh, Jammu and nearby areas in next three days.
- Sindh: Light to Moderate falls are expected in Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Dadu,Badin and Larkana with potential of isolated hails in the coastal region. Moreover drizzle turning into light rain may occur at one or two place in Central and Northern Sindh including Sukkur, Shikarpur, Ghotki, Nawabshah, Nowshero Feroz, Sanghar, Tharparkar and Mirpurkhas.
“Karachi To Receive Rains After A Year of Drought”
Overall there are good moderate chances of precipitation in Karachi (about 70% – 80%) in upcoming 48 hours during Saturday’s night into Monday’s morning. Firstly, before the development pops-up near Karachi there will be developments in extreme SE Balochistan near Bela, Ormara and nearby areas indicating the beginning of development for Karachi and its movement. Due to exceeded thundercell composite there will be the probability of hails at one or two places in vicinity. Hence the rain intensity can be moderate to heavy at times with at least 2 spells affecting different parts of metropolis while the rain amounts might hover between 4 mm – 12 mm averagely. However, the rain depends upon the direction of thunderclouds which cannot be wisely predicted but thoroughly observed.
The prevailing situations of drought might be ceased to some extent in Balochistan and Sindh including Karachi. Moreover the WD is accompanied by a strong “Cold Front” that would cause the sufficient decrease in temperatures through out the sub–continent. Moreover as the WD would leave by 21st/22nd January, a long-lasting “Cold Wave” would affect the region, at least for a week. Hence due to good super composite there are also chances of occasional hails in coastal areas. Residents of mountainous area should be alert of land slides and avalanches.
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