Short-Termed Forecast

“Forecast Limit: 24 – 30 Hours”

As the Western Disturbance (rain system) has entered Pakistan through Iran today earlier this noon, while pouring the major parts of Balochistan, first scattered spring rains are expected to lash Sindh, Punjab and other northern areas with snowfall at elevated mountains.

Mainly the areas which are likely to be effected most are;

  1. Almost All Parts of Balochistan
  2. Upper, Western and few parts of Central Sindh
  3. Upper, Central and few parts of Southern Punjab
  4. Nearly whole province of K.P.K
  5. Nearly whole region of northern areas (GB, AJK)

First Spring Rain Expected in Karachi

There are moderate chances (about 60%) of scattered light thunder-rain activity in next 24 days especially in coastal regions of Pakistan including isolated parts of Karachi and other areas which are mentioned above. Hence the last WD wasn’t able to propagate such due to ridge lying over Southern Sindh, but now there is no such complexion except the surging jet streams.

The major factors like trough position, relative humidity (RH), supercell composite, CAPE-CIN  values balance, helicity, lifted index etc are looking somehow to be nearly finer. Moreover the lofted temperatures are helpful in generating good surface-based CAPE index, as the thick high/mid levels are marching over skies. However the frequent movement of trough and accelerated jet streams would may cause clouds to bypass the metropolis from North or even from South!

Good News [20th/21th February]: As back-to-back WD are anticipated (that one is affecting and another by late-Wednesday or early Thursday) thus there are chances of good accumulation in about all parts of country specially Balochistan, Punjab, KPK, Northern Areas and Western/Upper Sindh.

 

First Spring Rain May Lash Karachi in Next 24 Hours
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Haider Saqib

Posted by Haider Saqib

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