ARABIAN SEA MONSTER
Counter-clockwise circulation that formed on 7th June off the Kerala coast strengthen into Tropical Depression by 10th June intensifying into Tropical Cyclone (Cat-1) within next 18 hours gained intensity with minimum pressure of 958 mb (Cat-3) lying off the Junagadh coast – drifting into West-Northwest direction. Later likely to dissipate in seas and impact Sindh-Gujrat border as WML.
Latest JTWC Tracjectory Image
Arabian Sea Monster Cat-3 (961 mb) cyclone Vayu, about 345 km SE of Karachi, moved North North-West (NNW) also weakened to cat-2 cyclone near SW Gujarat coast. However Vayu managed to regain its power (958 mb) with max. sustained winds 166 kmph and gust upto 203 kmph off the Junapadh coast, Gujarat.
According to IMD parts of Gujarat are being lashed with heavy downpour with expected gale forced winds ranging between 135 – 145 km/h and gusts upto 160 km/h. Porbandar witnessed 83 kmph wind this noon. Earlier there were about major probability of cyclone to make landfall on western Gujarat coast near Porbandar however the central Indian high pressure (HP) positioning has just tilted cyclone’s track into north-west direction.
The cyclone Vayu would may have continued its movement towards Sindh but the newly HP ridges southward extension in contrast with central Indian HP has halted cyclone’s NW movement, making Vayu particularly stationary in NE Arabian Sea (for hours) later tilting it in West-North-West (WNW) and West (W) direction (WSW too). There might be sudden changes in path or even the path can be circular/rebounding.
While exploring wind shear, SST and convergence factors cyclone being stagnant in north Arabian Sea could maintains its strength for further next 48 hours – hence building favourable conditions for Pre-Monsoon rains in eastern Pakistan including Lower Sindh. However the dust particles / dry air mass will terminate regional developments as well as hinder cyclones strength.
Later on weakening, the counter-clockwise circulation may hit Sindh-Gujrat border as Well Marked Low (WML) this weekend ahead or dissipate entirely. Few parameters also suggest further intensification of Vayu particularly.
NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SINDH COAST HOWEVER ADVISORY MIGHT BE ISSUED UPON ALTERATION IN VAYU’S TRAJECTORY
Note: Fishermen and laymen are strictly advised to refrain from venturing in seas till SATURDAY
Under the influence of cyclone Vayu there are moderate chances of Pre-Monsoon activities in parts of Pakistan including Lower Sindh and Southern Punjab within next 54 hours. Heat wave will continuously prevail in coastal regions whereas Isolated Thunderstorms in above mentioned areas are anticipate, accompanied with gusty winds.