Monsoon season of 2018 was recorded largely below normal in whole Pakistan with -31% deviation from normal rains in the country however in some areas monsoon went above normal. Talking about Sindh than this province had one of the worst monsoon of last 2 decades as province saw largely below normal rains at -93% deviation from Average.
After conducting deep analysis of atmospheric conditions and Earth vectors Pakweather.com predicts almost normal monsoon for whole Pakistan with expectations ranging between (85-105%) +/- 15% error of rains from average. There are lot’s of factors, conditions and parameters that we have researched for the preparation of monsoon outlook of 2019 but we are only going to mention the basics which include OLR/MJO values, IOD, ENSO and Deep atmospheric circulations analysis.
A quick note here that various charts are predicting IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) to remain in slightly positive (almost neutral) phase during monsoon along with neutral ENSO conditions.
MONSOON FORECAST 2019 (JULY-SEPTEMBER):
Monsoon 2019 is expected to cover entire Pakistan between 4th till 15th July.
Monsoon 2019 is expected to onset in Sindh during 1st week of July.
Overall near Normal Rains are expected throughout Sindh during monsoon 2019 with rainfall in range of 90-105% +/- 30% of average throughout Sindh however rainfall will be erratic that means some areas will get above normal rain while some will see below normal rainfall, huge variation is expected to occur.
Rainfall in Upper Sindh would be more erratic hence we are expecting large deviation in amounts to occur thus we predict near normal to slightly above normal rainfall ranging in between 80-110%, of average rains +/- 30% can error.
Northwestern Sindh is expected to see normal to slightly above normal rainfall with expectations ranging between 95-110% of average rains, +/-10% error can occur
Northeastern Sindh is expected to see Normal rainfall with expectations ranging between 90-100%, +/-20% error can occur.
Rainfall in Central Sindh would be more erratic hence we are expecting large deviation in amounts to occur thus we predict slightly below normal rainfall ranging in between 80-105%, +/-30% error can occur.
Western Sindh is expected to see above normal monsoon rains this year with expectations of 110-130%, +/-10% error can occur.
Lower Sindh is expected to see slightly below normal to almost normal rains with expectations of 80-110%, +/- 20% error. Hyderabad may see normal monsoon rains this year, while badin side is expected to see above normal monsoon rains.
Eastern Sindh will also see erratic rains, we predict above normal rains with expectations of 95-105%, +/-30% rainfall.
Southeastern Sindh is expected to receive above normal rains this year with expectations of 95-105%, +/- 30% error can occur.
Southwestern and Coastal Sindh is also expected to see erratic rainfall, we are expecting near normal rainfall ranging in between 85-105% this year. Thatta may see above normal rainfall while Karachi is expected to see normal monsoon rains this year.
- Isolated Severe events like short duration cloud-bursts and Heavy winds are expected mainly in Southeastern Sindh.
- 4-5 monsoon systems are expected to affect Sindh during this monsoon.
- Monsoon onset in Sindh is expected between 4th July – 10th July period, 2 spells may affect Sindh in july, august is expected to go even better.
- Normal temperatures are expected in Sindh, 2 heatwaves may effect during this season.
- If Compared to 2018, a much better monsoon is expected in Karachi this year. Good sea clouds cover with occasional drizzle/light showers are expected in Karachi consistently from 1st week of July.
Monsoon onset may happen during 1st or 2nd week of July.
Normal to slightly above normal rains are anticipated for whole Punjab monsoon 2019, rain percentage is expected to be in range of 95-110% Monsoon may advance in Punjab sometime during 1st week of July.
Upper Punjab is expected to see erratic rainfall meaning some areas will be Above normal and some normal. Overall rainfall percentage is expected to be in range of with 95-110% of average rains. Lahore will see normal to slightly above normal rains this year with expectations of 80-105% +/- 20% error. Islamabad will also see normal to slightly above normal rains with expectations of 90-110% deviation from average which may include +/-30% error.
Northeastern Punjab is expected to receive above normal rainfall with expectations of 95-110%, +/-30% error can occur.
Eastern Punjab is also expected to receive slightly above normal rainfall this year with expectations of 90-105%, +/-10% error can occur.
Western Punjab is expected to receive slightly above normal rainfall this year with expectations of 90-105%, +/-20% error can occur.
Central Punjab is expected to receive near normal rainfall with expectations of 80-105% +/-30% error.
Southern Punjab is expected to see normal to slightly above normal rains with expectations 90-110% +/-10% error.
- Severe thunderstorms are expected to form during this season.
- Chances of cloudburst events in pure monsoonal regions of Punjab cannot be ruled out.
- 2 strong heat waves may affect Punjab.
- Western Disturbance and monsoon moisture interactions will occur time to time.
- Near normal temperatures are expected.
- 40% Chances of monsoon low pressure to directly affect Punjab.
- 7-8 monsoon spells are expected in Northern Half of Punjab while 4-5 in Southern Half of Punjab.
Monsoon onset may happen during 1st or 2nd week of July.
Only Eastern and Northeastern Balochistan falls under Monsoon Zone however Southern parts of Balochistan also get affected by monsoon sometimes, Due to high geography, monsoonal currents have great impact on the weather of this area, Pakweather.com predicts overall above normal rains in monsoon zones of Balochistan with 90-115% of rains from average, +/- 30% error can occur.
100-120% rains in Northeastern Balochistan while 100-110% in Eastern Balochistan and 90-105% in Southeastern Balochistan during monsoon, Deviation upto +/- 30% can occur.
Southern and Southwestern Balochistan may very well see monsoon rains this year, we expect around 80-100% of rains there.
Monsoon onset is expected during 2nd week of July. Quetta is expected to see slightly below normal to normal rains this monsoon with expectations of 70-90%, +/-10% error can occur.
- Formation of very heavy thunderstorms is expected resulting in Isolated severe weather in some areas.
- 2 heatwaves are expected.
- Interaction is possible in Northeastern Balochistan.
- flooding and overflowing of streams likely to occur.
Due to high geography, monsoon currents greatly affect the weather of this area, Pakweather.com predicts 85-95% rains in Lower kpk while 90-100% in Northern kpk. overall rain percentage is going to be around 90-105% for whole province during monsoon. Monsoon onset is expected during early days of July. Peshawar is expected to see near normal rains this monsoon with expectations of 90-110%, +/-10% error can occur.
- Isolated Severe weather is expected.
- Heavy interaction of moist winds may occur causing heavy convection over this area.
- Over flowing of streams and isolated flooding situation cannot be ruled off.
- below normal to normal temperatures are expected.
Monsoon onset is expected to occur during 1st week of july.
Rains with 85-105% +/-5% error departure from normal are expected throughout Kashmir region with departure of 120-130% in some areas during monsoon.
- Scattered to isolated severe weather events are expected to occur occasionally in the region.
- Interactions are likely to occur.
- Overall mostly Normal to slightly above normal monsoon rains are expected in all monsoon zones of Pakistan, Severe weather events and 200-300mm rain spells in upper Pakistan may occur, causing over flowing of rivers and streams leading to floods.
- Overall Normal monsoon rains are expected in Coastal Sindh, presence of heavy sea clouds will cause occasional drizzle/light rain in Coastal and Eastern Sindh especially Karachi during July and August.
- We are expecting Normal to slightly below-normal temperature trend to continue in most parts of Pakistan except for Sindh and Southern Balochistan where normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected.
- Overall a much better monsoon than 2018 is expected in Karachi this year, we are expecting normal monsoon rains but incase of any +/- change in number of spells and their intensity would drastically change accumulated amounts in reality.
- At least 2 monsoon low pressure systems are expected to come near/over Gujrat-Rajhistan region.
Lets have a look at genius personalities that are involved in making of this Monsoon outlook for 2019.